3 Reasons Why Gold & Silver May Reach $4,000 & $50 Sooner Than Later

If you’ve been paying attention to the precious metals market, then you know that we’re in the midst of one of the most prolific bull runs in 14 years. Specifically, it was 2011 when gold reached $1,900 an ounce and silver reached $50 an ounce. While silver is on the cusp of reaching all-time highs once again, gold has more than doubled from its highs reached in August of 2011.

In fact, you may have heard that gold just reached its inflation-adjusted high of $800 in 1980. That’s a long wait for many gold and silver investors, but your persistence has paid off. In fact, gold has been the best performing asset class since the dot.com bubble and bust in 2000 and likely has legs from here.

In today’s article, we’re going to discuss three reasons why we believe that gold and silver will reach $4,000 and $50, respectively, sooner than later. We’re also going to discuss where we could conceivably see prices go from here through the end of the current bull market, which in our opinion, is still in the early stages.

Fed’s Rate Cutting Cycle

Historically, the actions of the Federal Reserve have resulted in not only changes to short-term interest rates, but also the direction of the dollar. September of 2025 was the first rate hike since December of 2024 and according to the CME Group, there’s a 96.2% probability of a rate cut when the Fed meets for its next FOMC Meeting on October 29^th. Anything less than a .25% interest rate cut would likely rock the financial markets, which is the last thing the Fed wants.

President Trump has repeatedly stated that he would like to see interest rates at 2% or lower. These sentiments have been repeated by Steven Miran, who has recently been nominated to the Fed’s Board of Governors. Miran is also considered one of the leading candidates to take over for Chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends in May of 2026.

So how do the Federal Reserves’ actions impact precious metal prices? When interest rates are high, this typically coincides with a strong currency. The credit markets tighten up, there’s less lending and credit creation and increased savings, as individuals are attracted to higher interest rates. Vice versa – when interest rates are lower, this fuels lending, an expansion of the money supply and typically weakens the currency. This ties into the currency manipulation narrative regarding China that you’re heard and read about from the Trump Administration.

The Federal Reserve will likely cut rates by .25% in October, as they don’t want to instill panic in the financial markets. A .50% rate cut would indicate that the economy is in much worse shape than the narrative we’ve been fed and would likely result in a sharp sell-off in the financial markets, which could be the catalyst for the next economic downturn.

As the Fed continues to reduce interest rates (the market is expecting a total of three cuts this year), we’ll see a weakening in the dollar and a corresponding increase in precious metal prices, as the two historically have had a negative correlation. Intuitively, you would expect an outflow in bonds, which will no longer provide interest rates that keep up with inflation and an inflow to precious metals.  Precious metals have historically been long-term hedges against inflation. In other words, the lower the interest rates are, the more appealing gold and silver becomes.

However, this is only one reason why we’re likely to see a continued bull run in precious metals.

Central Bank Buying

The World Gold Council revealed that Central Bank buying of gold reached 1,086 tons in 2024, which was the third consecutive year of 1,000 or more tons. 2025 Central Bank gold purchases are also expected to reach 1,000 tons even though gold prices have more than doubled over the past few years. This trend will likely continue for the foreseeable future.

While central banks in the East and Far East have been relatively consistent in recent years, we’ve seen a substantial increase in gold purchases since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began. This is in response to the U.S. freezing $300 billion in Russia treasury holdings. Until that time, this scenario was seen as a low probability. As you would expect, countries with which we have a less than stellar rapport at the moment are some of the biggest buyers of gold.

While we haven’t seen a mass liquidation of treasuries by foreign central banks, we’ve seen them beginning to pare their holdings and not necessarily roll over their investments at maturity. Even though there has been talk of a concerted effort of the BRICs countries to orchestrate a dollar collapse from a mass liquidation of treasuries, the fact of the matter is that the dollar remains the U.S. global reserve currency. Furthermore, many trade agreements, loans, etc. are still based on the dollar.

Central Banks also tend to increase their gold holdings when there’s uncertainty. Needless to say, there’s no shortage of risk and uncertainty in the markets. If we see some of the conflicts and rhetoric die down and a potential soft landing orchestrated by the Federal Reserve, we may see central banks reduce the rate at which they’re accumulating gold reserves, but we won’t bet on this scenario playing out.

Precious Metal Bull Markets

While we don’t have a ton of historic data available on previous precious metal bull markets, as we were on a gold standard until 1971, we have nearly 55 years of prior returns to try and extrapolate what we can expect to see in the future.

As with most other asset classes, precious metals move in cycles, and in the case of gold and silver, the cycles tend to be longer and more pronounced than many other asset classes. Historically, we’ve seen bull markets in precious metals run for about 10 years. Of course, nothing goes up in a straight line, but the trend of the market is the key.

If we look back at the 1970 – 1980 and 2000 – 2011 bull markets, we saw increases of 600% – 800%. The current bull market is estimated by most to have started in October 2022, which means that we’re only three years into what could be a 10-year run. The spot price of gold in October of 2022 averaged around $1,650. Thus far, we’ve seen a roughly 235% return in the price of gold since the beginning of the bull run. If this current bull run performs similarly to previous bull runs, we could conceivably see prices in the $10,000 – $13,000 range by the end of 2032.

Is this a prediction? No.

We’re merely pointing out where prices could go if this bull market performs like the past two bull markets. That being said, gold closed on the day of this article (10/3/25) at $3,885, which is only 3% away from $4,000. I don’t believe it’s much of a strength to assume that gold prices could increase another 3% over the next 90 days or so. Of course, any black swan events that we see between now and then could push prices much higher.

So what about silver? Historically, silver has lagged gold in previous precious metal bull markets but tends to ultimately outperform once everything is said and done. If we assume that the silver bull market began around the same time as the gold bull market, we see that the price of silver was roughly $19.50 an ounce at that time. Today’s closing price was $47.92. We’ve seen a 250% increase in silver prices since October 2022, which is on par with the increase in gold prices. Of note, silver is only 4% away from reaching its previous all-time high of $50.

If we assume that silver just keeps pace with gold in this bull market, we could see prices in the $117 – $156 range by 2032. However, if it outperforms, as it has in the past, a range of $150 – $200 is not out of the realm of possibility. At present, the gold to silver ratio is 81, which is a bit lower than in recent years, but is still below the modern historical average of 60. A compression of the gold to silver ratio could also cause silver prices to march much higher.

Retail Demand for Gold & Silver

Interestingly, we’ve seen a roughly 250% increase in precious metal prices over the past three years with limited retail demand. There were times when retail buyers expressed interest, such as during the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the regional banking crisis in 2023, but otherwise, buying has been muted. We suspect this is in part due to the huge runup in cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500. In fact, as we sit here today, the S&P 500 is sitting at over 6,700 and Bitcoin at $122,000.

While the U.S. stock market has been making all the headlines, gold and silver have been in a stealth bull market. Gold continues to reach new all-time highs (ATM) while silver is quickly approaching its previous ATM. To date, central bank buying, and to a lesser extent, institutional buying has contributed to the increase in price.

When we look back at previous bull markets, we’ve seen significant retail demand or local buying. In fact, so much so that most physical inventory dried up. When this happens, premiums tend to explode. We’ve mentioned this previously, but during the pandemic, we saw premiums on silver eagles at over 100%. As an example, if the spot price of silver was $20, American silver eagles were selling at over $40.

We’re starting to see a small uptick in retail demand (more so gold than silver), but it’s still a far cry from the nearly insatiable demand that we saw in the last bull market and during the pandemic. What this means is that premiums on most gold and silver coins and bullion offerings are still very reasonable. In fact, some items, such as 90% silver coins, are selling at some of the lowest rates we’ve seen over the past 15 years.

It’s our opinion, and the opinion of most in the industry is that we won’t see a bubble in gold and silver prices until we see two things. Firstly, huge demand from retail buyers. As mentioned, we’re not even at the point where we’re seeing moderate demand. In other words, we’re seeing many more sellers than buyers. Secondly, you typically don’t see a top in the market until you see prices go parabolic. This means 3% – 5% daily increases and a chart going straight up. This bull run has been measured with moderate increases and consolidations followed by further increases. Again, there’s nothing to indicate whatsoever that we’re in bubble territory.

We don’t know exactly what the catalyst will be before we see increased demand from the public. The most obvious scenario is a stock market correction, which is at all-time highs and is at its highest valuation ever, as measured by the CAPE ratio and a few other metrics. Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been closely tracking the Nasdaq, which means a correction in the tech sector could result in the liquidation of cryptocurrencies.

Gold (and silver) are natural recipients of some of these outflows of funds, as they’ve historically been seen as safe haven investments during uncertainty. They likely will see an even higher inflow of funds if the Fed is in the middle of their rate-cutting cycle and interest rates are much lower. Of course, any potential geopolitical or black swan events will also cause an inflow into precious metals.

While the paper market in gold and silver, such as ETFs and stocks, is robust, the physical market is much smaller than folks realize. Just a few years ago, a Wal-Mart heiress made an estimated $50 million investment in U.S. gold and silver coins, which caused the wholesale market to nearly dry up overnight. All you would need is a handful of multi-millionaires or billionaires to make a significant purchase of physical gold and silver for this to occur again.

It’s oftentimes most difficult and costly to acquire physical gold and silver when you want or need it most, as the herd tends to move into this sector at the same time. This is why it’s prudent to consider an initial investment or to add to your holdings while premiums are low and supply remains plentiful. If we’re only three years into a multi-year bull run even at today’s prices, you should see a significant return on your investment in the coming years.

Conclusion

We covered a lot of ground today, so let’s recap. At the time of this writing, we’re only 3% and 4%, respectively, from reaching $4,000 gold and $50 silver. Considering we have nearly three months left in the year, it’s likely that we’ll reach these thresholds by the end of the year and sooner rather than later.

We made the case that we’re still early in this bull market (relative to previous bull markets) and provided three reasons why we’re likely to continue to see higher prices from here. Central Bank buying will likely continue to increase. We’ll also likely see institutional buying become a larger factor, as we’ve seen in the crypto space, and eventually retail buying, which is still muted at the time of this article.

While we can’t guarantee that you’ll ultimately see a 6 – 8 fold increase in your gold and silver investments once everything is said and done, there’s precedence that this is quite possible. Of course, revaluing our gold reserves, going back to a gold standard, a movement away from the dollar, stable coin investments in gold, etc. are all factors that could help us get there sooner than later.

Whether you’re in the market to add to or liquidate some of your precious metal holdings, the experts at Atlanta Gold & Coin Buyers can assist you. We have years of experience in the market, have seen various cycles and are able to provide guidance on which options may be best for you and your financial future. Contact us today at 404-236-9744 or via email here.